Health and social care services in East Renfrewshire are facing “another incredibly difficult year”, with a funding gap of around £10 million forecast.

Bosses warned current modelling is “heavily caveated” — with a “clearer picture” expected next month — but described the Scottish Government’s funding settlement as “worse than we had hoped for”.

Unfunded pressures for both council and NHS-ran services are expected to total £10.1m in 2024/25 — while there is also a forecast overspend of almost £4.6m for the current year (2023/24), with planned savings not “coming through at the pace” expected.

The prioritisation of social care to only “those with substantial and critical needs” is planned to save money, and voluntary job losses are also on the cards.

In an update to East Renfrewshire’s Integration Joint Board (IJB), which directs the area’s health and social care partnership (HSCP), chief financial officer Lesley Bairden laid out the “challenges”.

Her report stated savings of £11.5m were made in social care between 2015 and 2023 and added “despite best efforts we may not be able to contain costs in the current financial year (23/24)”. 

Talks are ongoing with both the council and NHS over the overspend — split £2.1m against council-funded activity and almost £2.5m against the NHS — and a recovery plan to balance the budget. 

In November, officials said there was “no choice” but to prioritise social care support to those in ‘substantial or critical’ need due to the “very dire” financial situation.

A ‘supporting people framework’ had been introduced last year to save money, when it was decided help would no longer be provided when needs were considered ‘low’. 

The November decision changed the focus to ‘substantial and critical’ — where there are “very immediate risks to individuals” — removing a ‘moderate’ category.

However, savings aren’t “coming through at the pace we had modelled” for 2023/24, the IJB heard. 

Ms Bairden said: “There does remain a really significant risk around savings that we had allowed for to come from the changing criteria around the ‘supporting people framework’.”

The report to the IJB stated the Scottish Government budget settlement for 2024/25, announced in December, was “worse than we had hoped for”.

Ms Bairden said: “I think it’s fair to say we are expecting another incredibly difficult year.  “I know we are facing similar levels of pressures to colleagues across the country, but it doesn’t make the local decisions that we will need to make any more palatable.”

For council-funded services, there is a projected funding gap of £6.3m, while NHS-funded activity faces a shortfall of around £3.8m.  The changes to the ‘supporting people framework’ are forecast to save £4m towards while “voluntary severances” are also planned. Identified savings, including a 3% efficiency target, have reduced the NHS gap to £1.44m.

A “long list” of savings options is being prepared ahead of a budget meeting in March.

A spokeswoman for the HSCP said it is “facing its toughest financial challenges to date and this does mean difficult decisions are ahead”.

“We have worked hard over the last few years to redesign services and to make our processes as efficient as possible,” she added.

“To find further savings though, it will regrettably mean residents will see changes to health and social care services in East Renfrewshire. We have already moved to providing social care only to those with substantial and critical needs, and we will be reviewing how we deliver all of our services, to allow the HSCP to focus on our core services.

“We are working with our community partners to mitigate these changes as far as possible. This will allow the HSCP to continue to provide care and support to those with the greatest needs and help us to achieve the best possible outcome for residents.”