A WORRYING trend in coronavirus cases in Scotland has been highlighted in a ‘Covid calculator’.

Devised by Imperial College London, the tool predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing coronavirus cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

When visited one month ago, only Glasgow and West Dumbartonshire were calculated as being at risk of becoming a hotspot – sitting at an 83% and 54% chance respectively.

Now, however, the map shows 11 local authorities in Scotland coloured in red – meaning they all have at least a 75% probability of having cases rise above 50 per 100,000 population.

Drag the screen above to view the difference over the next week.

But the most worrying data on the map comes when looking at its calculations for over the next week.

By October 11, 23 local authorites are deemed to be in the red category.

The remaining areas - Inverclyde, Clackmannanshire, Perth and Kinross, Angus, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Highlands, Orkney and Shetland Islands - have a hotspot probability of 45% or less. 

Speaking last month, lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London, said: "COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.”

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

You can view the tool here for more information.

It comes as COVID cases continue to rise across the country.

A total of 758 new coronavirus cases were confirmed in Scotland during the 24 hours up to yesterday afternoon.

Sunday’s figures from the Scottish Government showed no new deaths had been reported.

The number of people in hospital with recently confirmed coronavirus rose by 19 to 210. Of these, 22 people were in intensive care.

Among the 758 new cases, 266 were in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area.

NHS Lothian recorded 176 cases and there were 138 in NHS Lanarkshire.

Across Scotland, the positive cases make up 12.1% of newly tested individuals.

The rising numbers have sparked calls for a ‘circuit-break’ style short but hard lockdown, as being implemented in Paris.

Pressed on whether he could rule out a “circuit breaker” lockdown this month, Deputy First Minister said: “I can’t give you that absolute guarantee just now.”