BARRHEAD is set to play a crucial role in the battle to win East Renfrewshire at the General Election...with latest analysis predicting an SNP victory.

The United Kingdom will go to the polls on Thursday, December 12, after an impasse over the country’s planned exit from the European Union led to MPs agreeing it is time for voters to have their say at the ballot box.

A full list of candidates is expected to be announced by the end of this month.

Conservative Paul Masterton has already announced his intention to stand again in a bid to retain his seat after his surprise win over Kirsten Oswald in 2017.

However, it appears he faces a battle to secure victory this time around.

Mr Masterton became the region’s first Tory MP for two decades after winning 40 per cent of the vote two years ago – almost nine per cent more than Ms Oswald.

But, according to political consultancy tool Electoral Calculus, Ms Oswald, who will again stand for the SNP, is set to pip her Tory rival.

It is predicted that Mr Masterton’s share of the vote will fall by almost eight per cent.

He is tipped to lose nearly 1,000 votes in Barrhead alone, which could play a crucial part in handing victory to Ms Oswald.

Mr Masterton’s predicted ‘lost votes’ appear to be principally down to the rise of the Brexit Party.


It is estimated that, should Nigel Farage’s group put forward a candidate in East Renfrewshire, he or she would claim around five per cent of votes.

While East Renfrewshire voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union, by 74 per cent to 26 per cent, Mr Masterton recently backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement, although the Bill’s defeat has ultimately led to a General Election.

Barrhead News: NIgel Farage's Brexit Party is expected to have a major say in the East Renfrewshire seat NIgel Farage's Brexit Party is expected to have a major say in the East Renfrewshire seat

It is predicted this could sway Remain-supporting voters in wards which backed Mr Masterton in the 2017 election, with Giffnock and Thornliebank, as well as Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North, among those set to swing in favour of the SNP.

Labour, meanwhile, who will be represented by Renfrewshire councillor Carolann Davidson, are predicted to suffer a nine per cent drop in votes but remain in third place.

According to Electoral Calculus, Liberal Democrat candidate Andrew McGlynn can expect to increase that party’s share of the vote by around seven per cent, which would be enough to secure fourth place.

A full explainer of the method used by Electoral Calculus can be found online at